MESA 10-Year CHD Risk with coronary age
Estimate your 10-year risk of a hard coronary heart disease event using the MESA study risk equations (McClelland 2015) with and without coronary artery calcium (CAC). Also translates your risk into a coronary age (Blaha 2021).
Patient Parameters
Enter patient parameters and tap Calculate to generate an individualized risk estimate.
10-Year CHD Risk
with coronary artery calcium
Coronary Age
CAC Stratum
–Enter a CAC score to see its clinical context.
Cumulative Risk Curve
Result Interpretation
Want to understand what your risk actually means?
A 10-year risk percentage is an anchor, not a plan. A full cardiometabolic evaluation (lipoprotein particle analysis, inflammatory markers, insulin resistance, imaging when indicated) turns a number into a prescription. If your CAC or coronary age surprised you, that's exactly the conversation to have.
Evidence & Sources
- McClelland RL, Jorgensen NW, Budoff M, et al. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2015;66(15):1643–1653. 10-Year Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Using Coronary Artery Calcium and Traditional Risk Factors: Derivation in the MESA Study.
- Blaha MJ, Naazie IN, Cainzos-Achirica M, et al. J Am Heart Assoc. 2021;10(6):e019351. Derivation of a Coronary Age Calculator Using Traditional Risk Factors and Coronary Artery Calcium.
- Detrano R, Guerci AD, Carr JJ, et al. N Engl J Med. 2008;358:1336–1345. Coronary Calcium as a Predictor of Coronary Events in Four Racial or Ethnic Groups.
- MESA Coordinating Center. MESA 10-Year CHD Risk Score Calculator. NHLBI.
Clinical Disclaimer: This calculator implements the MESA 10-year CHD risk equations (McClelland 2015) and the MESA coronary age derivation (Blaha 2021) for educational and clinical decision-support purposes only. The model was derived from participants aged 45–84; results outside this range are extrapolations. The coefficients assume the four self-identified MESA race/ethnicity categories; other racial/ethnic groups (e.g., South Asian, Middle Eastern) are not directly represented. Coronary age is a communication tool and does not add predictive accuracy beyond the CHD risk score itself. This tool does not substitute for individualized clinical judgment.
About MESA CHD Risk
What's the difference between 'with CAC' and 'without CAC' risk?
The "without CAC" estimate uses only traditional risk factors (age, sex, lipids, blood pressure, etc.), it's essentially a Framingham-style estimate. The "with CAC" estimate adds your coronary artery calcium score, which measures actual calcified plaque in your arteries via CT scan. CAC typically changes the estimate substantially in both directions: people with low CAC get a lower estimate than their risk factors suggest, and people with high CAC get a higher one.
What is a CAC scan and should I get one?
A CAC (coronary artery calcium) scan is a non-contrast CT that measures calcified plaque in your coronary arteries. It takes about 10 minutes, delivers a radiation dose comparable to a mammogram, and typically costs $100–$300 out of pocket. AHA/ACC guidelines support CAC testing for borderline-to-intermediate risk adults where the decision about preventive therapy is unclear.
What is 'coronary age'?
Coronary age is the age at which a healthy comparator of your sex and race would have the same 10-year CHD risk as you do. It's a communication tool, it doesn't add predictive accuracy on top of the risk score, but it often makes the number more intuitive. A 52-year-old with a coronary age of 67 understands that differently than "your risk is 8%."
Which age range does this work for?
The MESA study enrolled adults aged 45–85. The calculator will accept ages in that range. For younger adults (under 45), consider the 30-year cardiovascular risk calculator, which is validated starting at age 20.
What counts as a 'hard CHD event'?
The MESA primary endpoint is myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or angina followed by revascularization. It does not include stroke or peripheral vascular events, those are captured in the broader 30-year CVD calculator.